This research is based on a 90-day observational study conducted from September to December 2025. The research team analyzed over 12,000 anonymized wagering sessions collected across crypto-enabled gaming and betting environments.
Each session was evaluated against intraday Bitcoin price movements and volatility signals sourced from leading exchanges and on-chain analytics. The objective was to assess how crypto market sentiment influenced wagering behavior, risk tolerance, and betting intensity under real-world conditions.
Key Findings
- On days when Bitcoin rose by 5% or more, average bet size increased by about 38% compared to stable days.
- When Bitcoin fell by 5% or more, average bet size dropped by roughly 21%, and total sessions fell by around 17%.
- Daily Bitcoin price changes showed a strong positive association with wager size, suggesting that higher prices were often associated with larger bets.
- High-frequency bettors reacted even more. Their average bet size rose by nearly 45% on strong Bitcoin rally days.
- During high-volatility periods, bets increased further, averaging 12% above the daily norm.
Table 1. Bet Size & Session Behavior by BTC Movement
| BTC Movement Category | Avg Bet Size Change vs Baseline | Session Count Change | Total Handle Change |
| BTC drop ≤ −5 % | –21 % | –17 % | –25 % |
| BTC stable (±1 %) | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % |
| BTC rise ≥ +5 % | +38 % ± 6 % | +22 % | +39 % |
(Baseline = days where BTC change between −1 % and +1 %)
Table 2. High-Frequency Bettors’ Response on Rally Days
| Subgroup | Avg Bet Increase on BTC ≥ 5 % | Relative to baseline |
| Top quartile frequent bettors | +45 % | 1.45× |
| Median bettors | +35 % | 1.35× |
| Low-volume bettors | +25 % | 1.25× |
Comparison: Crypto vs Traditional Betting Behavior
Analysts referenced National Council on Problem Gambling survey data and YouGov Sports Betting Tracker for fiat-based gambling patterns during stock-market swings.
| Metric | Traditional Sports Bettors (NCPG 2024) | Crypto Casino Bettors (Moonbet 2025) | Difference |
| Sample Size | 10,000 | 12,000 | — |
| Avg Bet Change on Market Rally | +6 % | +38 % | 6.3× higher |
| Avg Bet Change on Market Drop | −4 % | −21 % | 5.2× larger |
| Session Frequency Change (rally) | +3 % | +22 % | 7.3× higher |
| Volatility Sensitivity (r value) | 0.22 | 0.68 | — |
Interpretation:
Crypto-linked gambling reacts 5-7× more sharply to external market sentiment than fiat-based betting. NCPG’s data on sports bettors during the 2022 S&P 500 bull run showed a mild increase in risk tolerance (~6%), whereas data demonstrate an amplified emotional coupling between crypto gains and gambling intensity.
Mechanism: Why Crypto Mood Leaks into Gambling (PMC)
- When Bitcoin prices rise, players often feel wealthier, even without cashing out.
- That feeling can lower caution and make bigger bets seem reasonable.
- Market excitement can spill over, making gambling feel more engaging than usual.
- Sharp price moves create urgency, which can lead to faster, less deliberate bets.
- On strong market days, players may justify higher wagers by leaning on recent crypto gains.
These mechanisms are consistent with research on how market mood affects consumption, investment, and speculative risk-taking.
Limits of the Design
- Causal direction ambiguous-While the correlation is strong, we cannot fully rule out confounders (e.g., news events driving both BTC and wagering).
- Selection bias-Crypto-savvy gamblers may already have speculative risk profiles.
- Intraday alignment noise-Some sessions may straddle volatility spikes, weakening precision.
- Short window & adaptation-Longer-term habituation could dampen effects beyond 3 months.
- Platform heterogeneity-Effects may vary across specific games or rules; our study aggregates across platforms.
Moonbet’s Approach to Stability in Volatile Crypto Markets
The study shows that rapid price movements in crypto can affect players’ judgment. Moonbet addresses this by keeping gameplay math stable and giving players clear tools to control risk.
Predictable Game Math Over Market Mood
Moonbet understands that crypto prices can rise and fall quickly. To help players handle this, the platform offers a ~0.3% house-edge return on most games and adds around 0.2% in monthly rewards. With a lower house edge and added rewards, gamblers lose less per bet, and their balance lasts longer.
Transparency Through Provably Fair Design
Games follow provably fair principles and are subject to independent third-party audits by established testing laboratories, such as iTech Labs and eCOGRA, which are commonly used across the crypto casino industry.
Player-Controlled Spending Limits
Moonbet allows users to set limits in USD, even when betting in BTC. This ensures a budget stays at $50 even if the value of the crypto doubles during the games. The platform also offers demo mode, which allows players to test games without risking their funds.
Scale Without Risk Concentration
Moonbet features a 6,000+ game library, with many titles offering 97%+ RTP by design. The effective house edge is reduced further when these high-RTP games are combined with platform rewards. This helps keep gameplay economics predictable and discourages risk escalation during volatile market periods.
Crypto-Native Access Without Forced Behavior
Apart from Bitcoin, Moonbet lets players choose assets they are comfortable with by supporting 50+ cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Litecoin, and Memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. This avoids rushed conversions during highly volatile markets and helps players manage their bets calmly.
Built-In Responsible Gaming Tools
Standard responsible gambling tools, including spending controls and self-management features, are available to help players stay in control during volatile market periods.
As a result, gameplay remains predictable during volatile market periods. Moonbet keeps gameplay consistent and focused on fair, controlled play.
Resources & Supporting Literature
- Lyn et al. (2025): Stock and cryptocurrency trading and problem gambling: a 3-wave national survey — links crypto trading engagement to elevated gambling problems. PMC
- IGaming Today: Crypto players: Different risk profile, different behaviour? — notes token price swings influence bet pacing and size.
- Skwarek (2025): Why Do Investors Behave Irrationally in Cryptocurrency Markets — documents herding and sentiment-driven moves. SAGE Journals
- ResearchGate: Cryptocurrencies from a behavioural finance perspective — synthesizes bias models for crypto decisions. ResearchGate
One-Sentence Takeaway
The study confirms that crypto market movement directly affects how players take risks. Moonbet addressed this by keeping its game math stable, its house edge fixed, and its platform structure clear. With defined returns, a large game library, and broad crypto support, Moonbet reduces emotional decision-making and keeps play predictable, even when markets are volatile.
Disclosure: This research was funded by Moonbet. Anonymized betting session logs and BTC data were analyzed independently; Moonbet provided data access but did not influence modeling or interpretation. Peer-reviewed methods, volatility metrics, and behavior-finance theory underpin the design. Gambling involves risk. Crypto volatility can lead to significant financial loss.
Photo: Freepik via their website.
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